Rongxin Education (833632)-Original strength further strengthens global architecture layout and steadily advances

Rongxin Education (833632)-Original strength further strengthens global architecture layout and steadily advances
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved total operating income3.50,000 yuan, an increase of 6 per year last year.56%; realized net profit of 4084.30,000 yuan, an increase of 22 last year.89%.It is planned to distribute a cash dividend of 1 per 10 shares to all shareholders with undistributed profits.60 yuan (including tax). Mid-to-high-end boutique children’s book brand, leading in market segments: The company is mainly engaged in the planning, design, production and distribution of mid-to-high-end preschool education puzzle products (children’s interactive book products) and global copyright transfer and output business.By the end of 2018, the company’s “Le Fun” brand children’s books ranked fifth in the country in the retail market for children’s publishing houses. Popular science and young children’s market segments ranked first among children’s publishing houses in the country. Integrated channel management and continuous growth of sales scale: In 2018, the company strengthened channel marketing operation management, conducted cross-border and cross-platform integrated marketing activities, adopted community launches for new books and existing key products in the channel, and launched an omni-channel distribution model.Online promotion with new media, new communication forms, and customer platform tracking themes; offline channels use story elder sister experience-based activities and cross-border brand marketing and promotion to achieve full coverage of major retail bookstore brands in first-, second-, and third-tier cities nationwideIn the case of 148 newly developed customers.The company’s business has grown steadily, market share sharing has steadily increased, and current sales revenue has increased by 6.56%, interesting flipping books, sales of magic three-dimensional books have continued to grow. Strengthen the original strength and increase the children’s book category: In 2018, the company’s original book publishing accounted for more than 40%, and especially books with rich traditional Chinese cultural characteristics were highly sought after by the market.Among them, “Happy Fun” original Oracle picture book “Little Chinese Characters Big Story” attracted much attention.Co-planned and published the original science popular three-dimensional book “Chang’e moon exploration three-dimensional book” of “Joy and Fun” with “China Lunar Exploration and Space Center” and China Aerospace Foundation.”China’s Outstanding Popular Science Book List” children’s original list; the company’s British original editorial team published the “magic plant three-dimensional book” response better. Layout of global structure to further consolidate competitive advantages: In 2018, the company completed the issuance of non-public stock and gradually raised more than 1.1 billion RMB, the 北京夜生活 company has spared no effort to explore overseas markets. In addition to the formation of a British original editorial team, the company established a wholly-owned subsidiary Rongxin Education Co., Ltd. in Hong Kong, and a wholly-owned subsidiary Ronshin International in the United States to participate inIn October, it acquired shares in Cottage Door Press to further develop the international market, form overseas competitive advantages, and build the international influence of the “Le Fun” brand, in order to enhance its original ability and enhance the company’s core competitiveness. Investment advice: The latest latest market value 6.51 ppm, pe is 16X, it is recommended to pay attention. Risk Tips: Risk of inventory impairment, risk of copyright infringement, risk of book selection cannot meet market demand

Hedge fund misjudges market triggers redemption tide and withdrawal of funds to ETF arms

Hedge fund misjudges market triggers redemption tide and withdrawal of funds to ETF arms

Original title: Hedge funds misjudged the market and triggered redemption. Withdrawal of funds was transferred to ETFs. Embracing 21st Century Economic Report. Chen Zhi Although the US stock market has hit record highs since 2019, hedge funds have completely handed out a satisfactory answer.

  The latest Eurekaedge data shows that the average return of US hedge funds in 2019 resets6.

96%, even the most outstanding long-short strategy stock fund, with an average return of 8.

64%, also significantly underperformed the S & P 500 index 厦门夜网 of 28.

9% increase.

  This triggered potential investors to redeem the shares at the end of 2019.

  Eurekaedge statistics found that in 2019, global investors withdrawn funds from hedge funds amounted to USD 131.8 billion, and a large part of the withdrawal funds went to passive investment products such as ETFs.

  ”Investors are dissatisfied with the high management fees of hedge funds and the poor performance returns.

In a sense, ETF products with low fees and transparent investment strategies are welcomed. They can enable investors to share the bull dividend of US stocks at cost.

“A Wall Street hedge fund manager told a 21st Century Business Herald reporter.

  He is worried that if the hedge fund continues to underperform the gains of U.S. stocks, the withdrawal of funds will intensify in 2020.

  Hedge funds are encumbering the problem of shrinking asset sizes.

For example, York Capital Management has decided to suspend the return of about 2 billion US dollars of credit opportunity funds by the end of 2019 and wait for the funds to liquidate before returning funds; Southpaw Asset Management promises to return firstInvestors redeem about 55% of their funds.

  The misjudgment of the market caused investors to vote with their feet in 2019. The reason why hedge funds so clearly underperformed U.S. stocks was mainly because they misjudged that the U.S. bull market was about to end.

  At the beginning of 2019, senior hedge fund managers such as Louis Bacon, Jeffrey Vinik, etc. all called out. The overvaluation of U.S. stocks and the tight trade income made the profitability of U.S. listed companies and the risk of US economic growthIncreased, US stock market companies’ repurchases tend to be significant, and other factors, making US stocks face the risk of asset bubble burst.

  So conventional hedge funds tend to be conservative in their investment strategies.

However, despite a significant increase in US stocks, most of the time, they are still on the track of refreshing historical highs.

For example, the annual S & P 500 index rose more than 28%.

  In particular, many hedge funds not only underperformed the risk-free 10-year U.S. Treasury yields in 2019, but even improved their performance in the bull market.

  According to eVestment data, as of the end of October 2019, hedge funds have encountered investor withdrawals for consecutive months, setting a record for long-term withdrawals since the subprime crisis broke out in 2008.

As of the end of November 2019, funds withdrawn from hedge funds amounted to 815.

$ 300 million.

  ”Even senior hedge fund managers such as Louis Bacon, Jeffrey Vernick, and others have had to take a liquidation of the fund and retreat. It can be seen that the entire hedge fund life is very sad.

“The hedge fund manager said.

  As the investment performance in the 11 months of 2019 did not rise but fell by 8%, York Capital Management encountered a huge amount of redemption of funds. Therefore, it suspended the redemption of about 2 billion credit opportunity funds and directly started the liquidation of funds.

  ”The fact is that the liquidation of the fund is more of a month.

The fund manager hopes to exchange time for space and timely and effective operations in the future to regain lost performance. At that time, investors’ attitudes may change.

“A former source familiar with the operation of US hedge funds said.

  ”The main value of hedge funds is hedging risk. When investors believe that there is not much risk in the US bull market in the short term, they do not need the help of hedge funds.

“The above person admitted frankly.

  Hedge fund White Elm Capital has returned an investment return of 28 since 2019.

73%, but Iorio, the founder of the fund, believes that now is the best time to end the investment.

  Bull market ETFs are favored by a large amount of funds leaving the hedge fund, and quickly invested in the embrace of passive investment products such as ETFs.

  According to eVestment data, the net inflow of funds for passive investment products such as the US ETF in 2019 reached US $ 326 billion, second only to US $ 476.1 billion in 2017.

  In terms of ETF products, the net inflow of US fixed income ETF products in 2019 was US $ 135.4 billion, which indicates that investors need to seek stable investment returns in the context of changing global economic growth and tight trade trends.U.S. stocks continued to hit record highs for the first half of the year. At the end of 2019, equity-based ETFs had a net capital inflow of 130 billion U.S. dollars; global equity ETFs were slightly behind in their ability to absorb gold, resulting in a net inflow of US $ 32.4 billion.

  ETF products are highly sought after by funds. BlackRock, Pioneer and other asset management agencies have become big winners.

The two ETF products of the US full-market fund VTI and the S & P 500 index fund VOO, which belong to a certain pioneer fund, received 15.3 billion and 124 billion in net inflows respectively.

  Relatively low rates (average management fees are less than 0.5% / year, hedge fund 2% / year), relatively transparent and clear investment strategies (and a basket of trading liquidity) are necessary for ETFs to gain favor.
).

  ”The poor performance of hedge funds has also brought ‘God assists’.

It shattered investors’ perception that hedge funds have low risk and high returns.

“The Wall Street hedge fund manager said.

They are currently developing low-volatility stock ETF products to re-attract investors.

  ”We found an interesting phenomenon. Hedge funds are more suitable for surviving and developing in the stock market turbulence, and ETFs are more popular in the unilateral bull market.

In 2020, U.S. stocks may continue their bull market, hedge funds may be less useful, and ETFs are even more sought after.

“The hedge fund manager said.
In the past five years, the number of hedge fund liquidation failures has exceeded 4,000, which has become a victim of the big bull market in the past 10 years.

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Changchun High-tech (000661): 2019 performance exceeds expectations

Changchun High-tech (000661): 2019 performance exceeds expectations
Jinsai’s interim results exceeded expectations with a target price of 512.07-590.85 yuan, giving a “buy” rating company to issue a profit forecast for 2019, net profit to mother 16.1-18.10,000 yuan, an increase of 60-80% in ten years (November-December Golden Race 29.5% equity consolidation), we expect real estate to contribute 1.5 billion profits, 100 grams / Huakang stable growth, the estimated long-term net profit of Jinsai 1.8-20 billion (continuous growth rate of 60-77%), the growth continued to exceed expectations (we predict 50-60% growth rate).We expect the company to continue to deliver over 30% performance growth for 20 years and raise its EPS forecast for 19-21 by 7%.97/13.13/16.RMB 28 (up 13% / 45% / 47% due to changes in share capital and consolidation caliber difference, actual increase based on net profit by 4% / 6% / 7%), giving a 39-45 times PE over 20 years (considering biological drugs/ New preparation platform, giving 30 times PE 30% -50% premium compared to 20 years), target price 512.07-590.85 yuan, it is recommended to buy.  Kinsey: Growth hormone hits another record, optimistic about the long-term effect of increasing the gross profit margin. Kinsey ‘s gradual performance growth rate is estimated to be 60-80% (Jinsai achieved 16 in the first 10 months of 19 years ago.1.5 billion net profit, we estimate the maximum net profit scale is 1.8-2 billion), 2020 will continue to exceed the 35% revenue growth rate, based on: 1) Kinsey gradually increases the domestic hormone hormone water injection market (2018 market share of 60%Above), brand barriers have been formed over the years of promotion (more than 1600 sales teams, covering more than 2,000 prescription doctors across the country), and it takes time to expand the competition channel; 2) with the hidden needle electronic pen + multiple specifications, convenient use for patients; 3) longBenefit from convenience (once a week). It is expected that the cartridge will cooperate with the electronic pen to increase patient comfort and increase the overall gross profit margin after the market launch next year. 4) Due to the large proportion of growth hormone purchases outside the hospital, it is expected to expand the terminal coverage and promoteReduced efficiency or impact of centralized mining.  Vaccines: The issuance of batches is gradually recovering, and new products or thickening of 2020 performance. We expect the company’s vaccine segment revenue to be basically flat, mainly due to the tightening of the batches of vaccines in the vaccine industry and the decrease in the number of issuances of plants for the reconstruction of mad seedlings.The proportion of Miao market is only 1%, which increases by 5 points every five years).The vaccinia was put into production through the new plant, and a large number of batches were issued in August, and the level of batches was returned to September to December (the data from the China Inspection Agency showed that the number of batches issued in 2019 increased by 3%, and the market share increased by 5pct to 37%).Restorative growth; nasal spray influenza vaccine is affected by the approval progress and WHO vaccine strain release time and restructuring sales. It is expected that production will be postponed until June 2020, which will increase 2020 performance.We expect Huakang to remain stable and the expected earnings growth rate is expected to reach 5%.  Real estate contributes stable cash flow, and biopharmaceuticals / new formulations speed up. Real estate is expected to contribute 1 in 2019.With a profit of about 500 million yuan, it may benefit from a large amount of high-quality asset reserves in the future and is optimistic about continuing to contribute cash flow.The company has gradually accelerated the pace of foreign investment since 2019: 1) Layout of the dual antibody platform, and move towards the formation of biologics with Avocatec and Kinsey mAb (VEGFR, IL-1β, etc.) / Microspheres (tripprelin, octreotide, etc.)The growth of the pharmaceutical industry; 2) According to the consensus of experts on neuralgia, lidocaine patches correspond to 400,000 / year patient groups, overlapping new dosage forms (large hydrogel transdermal patches with good drug compatibility and good skin compatibility) and competitive pattern(The only domestic 重庆耍耍网 Beijing Tide gel patch was approved), optimistic about profit increase.  Risk reminder: The price of water injection has dropped or sales have fallen short of expectations, and the launch of new vaccine products has fallen short of expectations.

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Chain growth rate improved, warming channel adjustment affects rate

Hengshun Vinegar Industry (600305): Chain growth rate improved, warming channel adjustment affects rate

The event company released the third quarter of 2019 and the company achieved revenue in the first three quarters of the year13.

30 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

62%; net profit attributable to mothers2.

51 ppm, an increase of 14 in ten years.

81%; net profit after deduction to non-returned mother1.

8.3 billion, an annual increase of 15.

20%.

  The company achieved revenue in the third quarter in a single quarter4.

500 million, an annual increase of 4.

24%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

09 million yuan, an increase of 14 in ten years.

21%; net profit after deduction is 0.

66 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.

49%.

  A brief comment on the growth rate of vinegar revenue. The company’s revenue growth rate since the beginning of Q2 has been mainly affected by vinegar, which accounts for 67% of revenue.

86% (Q3 2019).

In the first three quarters of this year, vinegar income was 9.

2 ‰, an increase of 6 in ten years.

42% in the third quarter.

05 ppm, its Q2 / Q3 single quarter revenue growth rate was 2 respectively.

58% / 3.

91%, lower than Q1 level.

Cooking wine has maintained rapid growth, with revenue in the first three quarters1.

860,000 yuan, an increase of 34 in ten years.

95%, and Q3 single-quarter revenue reached 0.

700 million, a previous growth rate of 39.

06%, 11 faster than Q2.

51pct, accounting for 15 in revenue.

66%.

  The growth rate of the direct sales model has picked up, and the main distribution models of online high-growth companies have achieved revenue of 10 in the first three quarters.

89 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

99%, accounting for 81 of revenue.

83%, the third quarter single-quarter distribution model achieved revenue3.

71 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.

64%, a quarter-on-quarter growth rate of 1 in the second quarter.

67 points.

Taking into account that the company’s advance receipts have been declining for many years, the decrease is 17.

65% of the channels are still destocking.The growth of the direct sales model was good, with revenue in the first three quarters1.

55 ppm, a five-year increase of 5.

93%, accounting for 11 of revenue.

66% in the third quarter achieved zero revenue in a single quarter.

54 ppm, a ten-year increase7.

08%, compared with the negative growth of the previous second quarter (-7.

58%) markedly improved.

  In terms of channels, online channels achieved zero revenue in the first three quarters.

72 million, a year-on-year growth rate of 82.

78%, the current share has been increased to 5.

42%, Q3 single-quarter online channel growth was 62.

74%, lower than Q2, but still at a high level.

Offline channels accounted for 88.

07%, the first three quarters of revenue 11.

7.2 billion, a previous growth rate of 7.

70% of its Q3 single quarter revenue is 3.

99 trillion, a growth rate of 5.

3%, up 2 from the second quarter.

94 points.

  From a regional perspective, the company accounted for 47% in East China.

53%, but the growth rate declined, Q3 chain down 3 than Q2.

Central China with 21 points (16.

20%) The growth rate decreased by 1.

56 points. The areas where the growth rate increased sequentially were South China, West China, and North China. Among them, the growth rate of South China was 23.

61%, an increase of 14 from the previous quarter.

At 88pct, the growth rates in the west and north China were 1 respectively.

55%, 3.

1%, the ring ratio is positive and negative.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company’s number of dealers has reached 1,211, and the report indicates a net increase of 18上海夜网论坛.

  The gross profit level continued to increase, and expansion efforts increased to increase the level of sales expense. The company’s gross profit level continued to optimize, mainly benefiting from the optimization of the company’s product structure and early price increases.

According to the company’s disclosure, the company’s high-end products can achieve a gross margin level of more than 50%, while the current comprehensive seasoning gross margin is 43.

34% (2018), there is always room for improvement.

At the same time, the company announced a price increase for its products in the early stage, and then in order to expand its channels and accelerate product promotion, it also nurtured its channels. The sales rate in the first three quarters of this year reached 16.

32%, increase by 1 every year.

75pct, Q3 single season sales fee cost 16.

22%, an increase of one year.

61 points.

  Profit forecast: The company is a leader in vinegar. The current concentration of vinegar market has decreased, and the integration space of the leader is broad, which will benefit the company’s growth in the long run.

The short-term profitability is affected by the channel construction, but the company’s own brand barriers are relatively high, and the company is expected to achieve revenue in 2019-2021.

62, 20.43, 22.

4.1 billion, net profit attributable to mothers3.

36, 3.

88, 4.

43 trillion, corresponding to EPS are 0.

43, 0.

49, 0.

57 yuan.

  Risk reminders: the risk of rising raw material glutinous rice prices, food safety risks, and channel expansion effects are less than expected.

BTG Hotel (600258) 19Q1 Review: Pressure on short-term results awaits data reversal

BTG Hotel (600258) 19Q1 Review: Pressure on short-term results awaits data reversal
Event: BTG Hotel released the first quarter report for 2019, and the company achieved 19 in 19Q1.4.4 billion / + 0.99%, net profit attributable to mother, 7,395.680,000 / -1.90%, net profit after deduction is 5,623.680,000 / -3.04%, non-recurring gains and losses of 17.72 million mainly come from investment income. Opinion: Hotel performance declines due to off-season renovation & RevPAR decline.Revenue: 19Q1 company realized revenue 19.4.4 billion / + 0.99% of which are hotels 17.7.3 billion / + 0.67% (such as home 15.6.2 billion / + 0.42%, BTG Stock Hotel 2.12 billion / + 2.57%), attractions 1.70 billion / + 4.49%.Total profit: 19Q1 company realized total profit1.58 billion / + 1.65%, of which hotels are 59.13 million / -10.53% (like home 1.06 billion / -7.85%), attractions 98.87 million / + 10.66%.(1) The performance of Nanshan Scenic Spot is dazzling: 193 people entered Nanshan in 19Q1.540,000 / + 1.9%. Since August 18, the ticket retention ratio has been increased from 40% to 50%, helping the performance to grow steadily.(2) Financial expenses were 37.65 million / -14%, and the financial expense ratio continued to drop to 1.9% /-0.34 points. Q1 opened 75 new stores and completed 9 of the original plan.4%.Newly opened 4/71 stores in the direct-operated / joined stores, 13/28/34 in the economy / mid-range / other stores; 62 closed stores, of which 7/55 were directly-operated / joined stores, Economic / Mid-end / Others closed 44/7/11 stores; 12 net openings, of which direct-operated / affiliated stores opened -3/15, Economic / Mid-end / Other stores opened -32 /21/23 home.The company’s store openings are led by high-profit franchise mid-end stores (17 net openings in Q1), and closed store participation by direct-operated economic stores (7 net closings in Q1). The store structure continues to optimize.By the end of 19Q1, the company’s total number of hotels was 4,061 (among which there were 3,900 homes), and there were 568 stores that had not been opened and were signing contracts; such stores accounted for mid- to high-end stores.5% / QoQ increased by 0.5pct, direct sales accounted for 23.0% / QoQ decreased by 0.1pct. Macroeconomic downward pressure & high base impact in the first half of 18, such as the same store RevPAR shift, mid-to-high-end performance is weaker than the economy.19Q1 Same Home RevPAR minus 3.0% (Economy / Mid-end decrease by 2 respectively.4% / 6.8%), of which house prices rose by 0.1% (economy increased by 0.4% / mid-end drop of 0.9%), occupancy rate decreased by 2.5 pct (Economy / Mid-end respectively -2.3pct / -4.5pct).The macroeconomic growth rate is rapid, with a high base in the first half of the year, and the impact of the upgrade and transformation of directly operated stores in the off-season. For example, the growth rate of RevPAR at the same store turned negative for the first time in nearly two years.However, with the stabilization of the macro economy and the conversion of policy dividends, the forecast of hotel data in the second half of the year will usher in a reversal. The performance of BTG’s stock hotels is stable.19Q1 RevPAR of all stores 212 yuan / +1.6%, the average house price is 390 yuan / + 1.7%, OCC 54.4% /-0.1 pct; economy store RevPAR 113 yuan / + 12.6%, ADR 159 yuan / + 6.4%, OCC70.9% / + 3.9 pct; RevPAR at high-end stores is 234 yuan / -1.3%, ADR 463 yuan / -0.5%, OCC50.6% /-0.4 pct. Investment advice: With the 深圳桑拿网 speed (quantity) of opening a store, structural optimization (price), light asset expansion (increasing profit margin), the long-term growth space of the hotel leader is determined; although RevPAR has increased in the short term, but with the stabilization of the macro economy, policy dividends gradually,Hotel data for the first half of the year is expected to usher in a reversal.In 19 years, the company further optimized the brand, promoted the upgrade of stores, accelerated the pace of opening stores, and at the same time distributed incentives to land soon. The mechanism rationalized the future development.It is estimated that the company’s revenue in 19-21 will be 86.7.1 billion / 89.3.1 billion / 93.3.5 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 9 respectively.3.9 billion / 11.07 billion / 13.4.2 billion, corresponding to 21 times / 18 times / 15 times the corresponding PE.Maintain “Buy” rating. Risk warning: Macroeconomic risks, store development is less than expected.

Huafa (600325): First-half results in line with expected rapid sales growth

Huafa (600325): First-half results in line with expected rapid sales growth

The 1H19 results are in line with the expected 1H19 results announced by the company: operating income of 14.2 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 51%; net profit attributable to mothers of 1.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 3%, corresponding to zero profit.

66 yuan, in line with CICC expectations.

The gross profit margin increased, and the high base of investment income resulted in a low profit growth rate.

The income of short-term company real estate development business increased by 52% annually to 13.7 billion U.S. dollars, and the settlement gross profit margin increased by 10 percentage points to 36% compared to the same 杭州夜网 period of the previous year. The corresponding comprehensive post-tax gross profit margin increased by 5 to 24%, of which the comprehensive tax in the second quarterLater gross profit margin increased by 7 percentage points to 26%.

Pioneer investment income 0.

23 trillion, a higher base than the same period last year 5.

The increase of 85 million US dollars increased net profit attributable to mothers by only 3%.

Net interest rate is still high and financing costs are low.

At the end of the period, the company’s net debt ratio increased by 1 point to 270% 1 compared with the beginning of the year, of which cash in hand increased by 23% to 23.5 billion US dollars, and interest-bearing liabilities increased 9% to 105.8 billion US dollars.

In the early days, the company successively started with 3.

76%?
5.

A coupon rate of 78% is gradually issued15.

295 trillion private placement bonds (two terms of 3 + 2/2 + 1 year), 1 billion trillion notes (term 3 + N years) and 500 billion ultra short-term financing (term 270 days).

Development trend Sales have increased rapidly in the first half of the year, and it is expected that the previously scheduled value added will exceed 50%.

Short-term company contract / contract sales area increased by 72% / 62% to 436 trillion / 1.79 million square meters, respectively.

We expect the company’s total budget to exceed 900 million, corresponding to a growth rate of more than 55%.

In the first half of the year, the land was dropped by nearly 30%.

Initially, the company added equity deposits 68 in Wuhan, Zhuhai, Shanwei, Tianjin and Shanghai.

750,000 square meters, down 17% from the same period last year.

We expect the company’s end-saleable value to exceed 250 billion yuan, approximately three times the 2019 estimate (CICC expectation).

Performance growth is highly deterministic and is expected to grow by nearly 30%.

At the end of the period, the company’s house receipts increased by 31% from the beginning of the year to 503 trillion, which is equivalent to 1.
.

5 times, has fully locked the performance of the next year.

Considering the lower base in the second half of the year, we expect the company’s performance growth rate to continue to increase in the second half of the year, which will expand the performance growth rate to 27%.

Earnings Forecast and Estimates The company conducts current transactions at 5.

2/4.

2x 2019 / 20e price-earnings ratio, lower than the valuation hub of the past three years.

Maintain Outperform rating and lower target price by 7% to 8.

92 yuan (mainly due to the company’s high leverage and the tightening of the financing environment for housing companies in the second half of the year), corresponding to 6.
.

5/5.

3x 2019 / 20e target P / E ratio and 26% upside.

Risk financing 淡水桑拿网 environment tightened further than expected, and launch and delivery progress fell short of expectations

China Film (600977): Imported film distribution business helps counter-trend revenue growth

China Film (600977): Imported film distribution business helps counter-trend revenue growth

1H19 results in line with expectations Chinese film announced 1H19 results: operating income of 48.

42 ppm, a ten-year increase4.

8%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

82 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

3%; net profit attributable to non-attributed mothers 5.

86 ‰, a decrease of 3 per year.

3%, basically in line with our expectations.

Development Trend The film distribution business has grown steadily, and the gross profit margin of the production business has increased significantly.

In the first half of 2019, mainland China achieved a box office of 311.

700 million, down 2 every year.

7%.

Affected by this, the company’s movie projection business revenue fell 6 year-on-year.

3% to 9.

1.2 billion.

Revenue from movie distribution business for the same period was 29.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 8 in ten years.

7%, mainly benefited from the good performance of the box office of imported films in the first half of the year.

1H19 issued a total of 80 imported films and 85 at the box office.

13 ppm, an increase of 19 in ten years.

4%.

In terms of film and television production business, the company invested a total of 9 films in the first half of the year, gradually achieving a box office57.

$ 5.7 billion, including the main derivative of the science fiction masterpiece 杭州桑拿网 “Wandering Earth”, which has been widely praised by the audience, the single-box box office has leapt to the top three in Chinese film history.

In addition, the company also produced the TV series “The Legend of Heavy Ears” in the report.

1H19’s film production business realized revenue3.

43 trillion, gross margin reached 33.

9%, an increase of 11 a year.

1%.

In terms of expense ratio, 1H19 company’s sales and management expenses were 0.

80 ppm / 2.

00 ppm, an increase of 50 each year.

9% / 17.

1%, mainly due to the consolidation of China Film Barco.

The business units are operating stably, and industry leaders are consolidated.

Although the overall performance of the film industry has been relatively sluggish since 2019, the company, as an industry leader in the overall industrial chain layout, has maintained steady business operations.

Benefiting from policy barriers, the company’s import film distribution business shares a solid foundation, with a total of 59 in the 1H19 box office.

6%, a slight increase in one year.

In terms of channels, the company has a total of 7 theaters and holds 2,642 theaters. It has a significant scale advantage and is expected to take the lead in future channel integration.

In addition, the company’s production business has a large reserve of films, and it is expected that more than 10 films and 30 TV series will be contributed.Taken together, we believe that the company has the ability to gradually resist the transformation of the imperial industry, and is expected to realize the operation advantages of the entire industry chain and the steady growth of its leader.

Earnings forecasts and estimates Taking into account the weak growth of the box office market in 2019, we lower our net profit for 2019/20205.

1% / 4.

6% to 13.

24 ppm / 13.

8.1 billion.

The current consensus is 20/2019/2020.

3 times / 19.

4x price-earnings ratio.

Maintain Outperform rating but lower target price by 14.

3% to 18.

00 yuan, corresponding to 25 in 2019/2020.

4x / 24.

3 times price-earnings ratio, compared with 25 previously included.

2% upside.

Risk regulatory policy adjustments; industry competition intensified; box office missed expectations.

Koboda (603786): leader in automotive electronic controller industry

Koboda (603786): leader in automotive electronic controller industry
Key points of investment: The leader in the automotive electronic controller industry, with high-speed growth and strong profitability.The company focuses on the automotive electronics industry. It is one of the few Chinese companies that has entered the global supporting system of internationally renowned vehicle manufacturers and developed automotive electronic components simultaneously.The core business lighting control system revenue accounted for more than 50% of the total revenue, while other main business motor control systems and on-board electrical appliances and electronics accounted for more than 20%.The company’s revenue CAGR28 in the past three years.64%, the net profit CAGR reached 39.3%.The company’s profitability is still high quality in the automotive electronics industry with a higher average gross profit, with an average gross profit margin of 34.72%, higher than industry 33.75% average, average ROE29.26%, long distance 10.39% industry average.  Automotive electronics penetration continues to increase, and LED lighting drives the development of lighting control systems.The continuous and rapid growth of the automotive electronics market is mainly driven by the growth of passenger vehicle sales, consumer demand to promote penetration, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles. The three major factors are driven by: (1) the prosperity index of the electronics industry since May 2018 at 151.06 rose to 158 in July 2019.39.(2) Increased consumer demand for automotive electronics promotes the increase in automotive electronics assembly rates for new cars. Based on the statistics of the new models launched in 2019, the body stability control system / automatic air conditioning system / ESC / active safety system / active noise reduction penetration rates have reached95% / 70% / 55% / 35% / 5%, automotive electronics penetration has increased significantly.(3) The cost of hybrid / pure electric vehicle electronics accounts for 47% / 65%, far exceeding that of traditional cars. The growth of the automotive electronics market is driven by the sales of new energy vehicles.Specific to the subdivided industries, (1) the automotive lighting system market is rapidly growing driven by the LEDization of car lights, and the penetration rate of LED car lights increased from 2% to 26% from 2012 to 2018; (2) the scale of the electric motor control market from 20121.9 million to 107 in 2018.900 million, CAGR reached 96.06%.Fuel pump control system (FPC), air-conditioning blower controller (ABC), active intake grille system (AGS) and other categories of motor control products have developed rapidly.  Product technology and quality are both leading, and mainstream high-end customers are stable.(1) Concentrate on improving hard power, and global sales and market share are increasing year by year.The company’s research and development expense rate reaches 6%, which is close to the level of the international leading continent. It has a total of more than 200 patented technologies. Its main product, the main light source controller, has a global sales of 7.41 million units and a market share of 5.26%, an increase of 45 per year.7%. (2) Integrate mainstream global high-end customers and lay a solid foundation for long-term cooperation.Among the world’s top 30 mainstream automotive brands, 17 are business partners of the company. The company binds high-quality customers such as Volkswagen, and Audi, Porsche, and Long Yat all have configured the company’s LLP, LDM, AVS, 北京桑拿洗浴保健 and electronic fuel pump controllers.product.And the company continues to develop new customers and has been newly nominated for Ford’s AGS project, BMW LED tail light controllers and Renault LED main light source controllers.(3) Efficient customer response system to increase production efficiency through sales and production.  The company builds a flexible and efficient customer response system, and implements the policy of “selling production based on sales” to fully improve operating efficiency, and the coverage rate of stocked goods and orders in hand exceeds 120%.  Products are in short supply, and investment and investment projects are expected to achieve double improvements in technology and production capacity within 4-5 years.At present, the company’s production and sales rate exceeds 100%, the order coverage rate 深圳桑拿网 exceeds 120%, and orders in hand5.25 ppm can bring at least 20% revenue growth for the company, and bring about 1.7.6 billion gross profit.The company’s leading product projects / R & D center projects are expected to invest 6 respectively.7/1.7 trillion, plans to achieve output growth in 4 years, the main product LED main light source controller LLP supplementary production capacity will reach 7.2 million units; within 5 years new products DC / DC transformers, 48V inverters and vehicle charging modules OBC completed research and development,Achieve further development of customer side.The average production capacity was maintained at a maximum of 63%, and new production lines continued to expand to help capacity climb.After the project is completed, the company’s revenue is expected to grow to 15.9.7 billion.  Covered for the first time, giving an overweight rating.With the company’s investment projects’ production capacity and new product releases in the next 4-5 years, combined with the marginal recovery of downstream automobile production and sales, the demand for orders continues to increase.We expect the company to achieve operating income of 27-20.48, 29.87 and 35.1.7 billion, net profit attributable to mother 5.0, 5.2 and 6.100 million, corresponding to estimates of 34 times, 33 times and 28 times.The absolute estimation method was used to estimate, and the company calculated WACC = 6.54%, assuming that the company will continue to increase production capacity through investment projects in the next 8 years, lighting control systems and automotive electronics business orders continue to expand, revenue growth in the semi-dominant phase is 22%, and revenue growth in the sustainable phase is assumed to be 2%, The company’s intrinsic value is 47.59 yuan, the current consensus (the closing price on October 16, 2019) is 42.59 yuan, the potential upside is 12%, giving an overweight rating.  Core risks: Customer orders are less than expected risks, motor control system business R & D and fundraising progress are less than expected risks

Enjie (002812) Company Comment: Expansion of Profit Increase QoQ Proposal to Reduce Agile Acquisition Consideration and Accelerate Integration

Enjie (002812) Company Comment: Expansion of Profit Increase QoQ Proposal to Reduce Agile Acquisition Consideration and Accelerate Integration

Key points of investment events: (1) The company released three quarterly reports for 2019: ① The first three quarters achieved revenue of 21.

0.6 billion, previously +29.

88%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

3.2 billion, previously +95.

80%; deduct non-attributed net profit 5.

5.3 billion, previously +252.

77%; net cash flow from operations 2.

05 billion; ② In a single quarter, 2019Q1 / Q2 / Q3 revenue was 6 respectively.

56/7.

22/7.

28ppm, Q3 +12.

51%, QoQ + 1%; Q3 returns to net profit of the mother 2.

43 trillion, +50 for ten years.

53%, +37.

5%; 19Q3 deducted non-attribution net profit is 2.

31 ppm, +82 a year.

37%, +60.

93%; Q3 single quarter comprehensive gross profit margin 46.

41% (a month-on-month increase of 4.

02%, an increase of 3 per year.

34%); Q3 net operating cash flow in a single quarter was 0.

8.8 billion.

Performance was slightly higher than expected.

(2) Announcement of the “Supplementary Agreement on Equity Transfer Agreement of Suzhou Jili New Energy Materials Co., Ltd.”, which proposes to reduce the purchase consideration to 18.

008 megabytes, canceling the agreed performance gambling of the “Article 6 Performance Gambling” of the original agreement.

  Supplying overseas lithium battery faucet supply chains, Q3 profit per square meter increased significantly.

Q3 single quarter revenue 7.

28 billion, +12 a year.

51%, + 1% MoM, deducting non-net profit 2.

4.3 billion, previously +50.

53%, +37.

5%.

  We expect the subsidiary Shanghai Enjie to have a net profit of approximately 6 in the first three quarters.

4.2 billion (19H1 is 4).

0.8 billion), corresponding to a net profit of about 2 in 19Q3.

3 ppm, deducting non-net profit is 2.

US $ 2.2 billion, we expect the Q3 wet split to expand by approximately 1.

900 million square meters, corresponding to Q3 single square meter net profit of over 1.1 yuan / square meter, a significant improvement over 北京桑拿洗浴保健 Q2.

The main category Q3 began to segment to overseas lithium battery leading customers in the quarter, and the net profit per square meter of overseas customers was higher. At the same time, the end-to-end Q3 expense dropped significantly, which brought a single quarter profit increase.

  The expense ratio was down from Q2: the company’s expenses during the first three quarters of 19 were 11.

69 %%, sales / management / financial expense ratios are 2% / 7.

34% / 2.

28%, of which 19Q3 sales / management / R & D / financial expenses were: 0.

14/0.

15/0.

25/0.

08,000 yuan, +26 each year.

82% /-22% / + 6% / + 149%, the expense ratios are: 1.

96% / 2.

08% / 3.

44% / 1.

16%, the period expense ratio decreased by 6.

For the 52 PCTs, the total cost of the three items decreased by about 46 million (including 南宁桑拿 management costs of 20 million and financial costs of 21 million), partly due to the cost reduction caused by scale effects.

  Reduce the acquisition consideration, cancel the gambling agreement, and accelerate the acquisition integration.

The company intends to acquire 100% equity of Suzhou Jili for 1.8 billion yuan and cancel the performance gambling stipulated in the previous agreement (the original gambling agreement was that Geli’s net profit in 19-21 was 1/1 respectively.

5/2 billion).

We think that this will reduce the acquisition cost, and at the same time cancel the gambling agreement. Based on this, the two parties have common customers in the wet division business such as power, and it may be difficult to settle the gambling performance, and more importantly, cancelIt can be more conducive for the company to accelerate the acquisition and integration of Jieli, and quickly introduce the advantages of cost, management, and scale to Jieli, forming a synergy effect on customers and enhancing profitability.

  Investment suggestion: As a global leader in wet method exceptions, the company intends to acquire Suzhou Jieli, vigorously expand the consumer field, and enhance the bargaining power of the industry.

In the future, the company is committed to realizing the advantages of “scale + cost + product quality”, realizing high-end wet replacement, and strong entry into overseas lithium battery giants to achieve rapid volume.

Considering the increase in overseas profits of the company’s supply, we adjusted our profit forecast and expect the company to achieve net profit of 9-2019 respectively.

2/13.

6/18 billion, corresponding to 28/19/14 times the PE, maintaining the overweight rating.

  Risk reminder: performance promises are less than expected, new energy vehicle policies are less than expected, intensified competition leads to a significant rise in product prices, and capacity release is less than expected

Ningbo Gaofa (603788): 19Q3 performance growth picks up after every positive turn

Ningbo Gaofa (603788): 19Q3 performance growth picks up after every positive turn

Event summary: The company released three quarterly reports: operating income6.

5.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.

4%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

4 ‰, a decrease of 31 per year.

6%; Net profit for non-recurring gains and losses.

2.1 billion, down 31 each year.

6%.

Event comment: The car’s economy is sluggish, and the company’s performance in the first three quarters is under pressure.

In the first three quarters of 2019, passenger car production declined by 13 each year.

1%, of which the company’s main customers GM Wuling, Geely Automobile, BYD, Chery Automobile are respectively at -29.

7%, -13.

2%, -6.

6%, +10

0%.

Affected by this, the company’s revenue in the first three quarters was 6.

5.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 35.

3%.

In the first three quarters, the company’s gross profit margin increased by 北京夜网 zero.

1 up to 33.

5%, three fee rate increased by 0.

2 up to 10.

6%.

In the end, the company achieved net profit attributable to the mother1.

4 ‰, a decrease of 31 per year.

6%.

In the third quarter, the company’s performance inflection point turned upwards, and its profitability improved significantly.

In the third quarter of 2019, domestic passenger car production was every 7 vehicles.

19% of the previous 19Q2 for 19 consecutive years.

3%, the decline was significantly narrowed.

Among them, the output of GM Wuling, Geely Automobile, BYD and Chery Automobile are at least -7.

3%, -14.

8%, -15.

0%, +15.

5%.

Except for Geely, they are better than the previous two quarters (of which 19Q2 GM Wuling’s discretion has continuously inserted 50%).

The company achieved revenue 2 in 19Q3.

21 trillion, down -21 a year.

1%, an increase of 2 from the previous quarter.
7%.
However, at the early stage of the industry recovery, the company showed strong cost and expense adjustment capabilities.

In the third quarter, the gross profit margin was the highest and increased by 0 from the previous month.

4 and 1.

7 up to 33.

8%, the three-fee rate fell 4 each year and month-on-month.

9 and 4.

3 up to 7.

1%.

The final 19Q3 company net profit was 23.

3%, an increase of 5% each year and month-on-month.

2 and 1.

9 averages, net profit attributable to mother is 0.

51 ppm, an increase of 1 per year.

4%, up 12% from the previous quarter.

The business continued to develop, and the door to joint ventures gradually opened, waiting for the industry and autonomy to warm up.

The company’s main products, electronic variable speed manipulators, have obtained the supporting qualifications of many OEMs including Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motors, SAIC Passenger Cars, BYD Automobiles, Chery Automobiles, Dongfeng Motors, SAIC Chase, and Jiangling Motors.

The electronic accelerator pedal obtained the qualification of Guangzhou Automobile Passenger Car.

The company has also begun to engage with the joint venture OEM and passed the review of potential suppliers of Changan Mazda. It is a step closer to becoming a joint venture brand supplier.

In addition, we believe that the current automotive industry is bottom-proven, and the expectation of continued warming is moving towards fulfillment; and the introduction of warming sales in the industry and independent brands, the company will be able to break through the performance recovery space.

Investment suggestion: The auto industry will go to the end of the warehouse and welcome the cycle of adding warehouses, which is expected to usher in a continuous recovery period of the industry.

In the early years, the company was a cross-beneficiary of the independent rise and the upgrading of the transitional industrial chain. This year, it was subject to the outstanding performance of independent brands.

We believe that the warming sales of the industry and independent brands are expected to drive the company’s performance evaluation up.

Because the Air Force is too optimistic about the auto market this year, it lowers the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19-20, from 2.

74, 3.

12 trillion down to 2.

0, 2.

6 trillion, corresponding to EPS.

87, 1.

12 yuan / share.

As the company expects an improvement from the last rated time, and the industry is gradually picking up, the estimated center of comparable companies in the industry has improved.

Give the company 16 times PE in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 18 yuan, and upgrade the company’s rating from “overweight” to “buy”.

Risk warning: automobile production and sales, new customer expansion, slower-than-expected upgrade of variable speed manipulators, etc.